New Year Message 2006 from AVIS College
The Year of Uncertainty
We start 2006 as we did 2005 dominated by the epidemic of the highly virulent avian influenza H5N1 strain. Since an outbreak of this strain of avian influenza was first reported to the OIE on December 12, 2003 by the Republic of Korea (South Korea), the disease has spread in three waves:
- The first was during late 2003 and the first half of 2004 when the disease spread alarmingly to several countries in South-east and East Asia, including Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Indonesia, China, South Korea and Japan. The disease seemed to be getting under control by April-May 2004.
- Then during the second half of 2004, a second wave started with more outbreaks in South-eastern and Eastern Asia in the same countries and extending to such contiguous countries as Malaysia.
- The third wave started in May 2005 when H5N1 was isolated from dead migratory birds on Qinghai Lake, North-western China. From this time H5N1 avian influenza was detected in Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Romania, Croatia, Bulgaria and Turkey. Meanwhile in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and China human infection and death have been recorded in persons with contact with infected birds. In January 2006, first human cases outside East Asia were recorded in Turkey.
There is now international concern that the disease could be spread by migratory birds to Africa during the period of northern hemispheric winter and then to Europe, when migratory birds return there during northern hemispheric spring and early summer. Were infection to reach Africa, there is some risk it might not be readily diagnosed in view of the weaknesses in the surveillance system and the widespread occurrence of Newcastle disease, with which it might be confused.
From the human health perspective, the occurrence of human cases in Turkey has extended the theatre of concern beyond East Asia. The epidemiological complications of backyard chickens and close interaction and/or co-habitation between humans and poultry has further raised the threat of a possible mutation of the H5N1 strain or recombination between H5N1 and common Influenza A strains. This interaction might result in a new variant, able to spread readily from human-to-human.
All these events have pointed to a risk of an influenza pandemic, which by January 2006 was rated by WHO at Phase 3 (out of 5 phases). Therefore, the Year 2006 has started in a state of serious uncertainty with respect to the outcome of the evolving epidemic of avian influenza.
The AVIS College acknowledges the gallant effort by the international community coordinated by FAO, OIE, WHO and the World Bank in assisting those countries that are either affected by or at high risk from highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza. We hope both leading up to and after the Beijing conference that the necessary resources will be mobilised to control the disease on a global basis.
The AVIS College response has been, and will continue to be, to contribute on an ongoing basis towards the assembly, peer review, management and dissemination of any form of knowledge that assists in preventing, mitigating or managing this, and other high impact diseases. Thus the 2006 AVIS Avian Influenza program has been reconfigured not only to provide basic information about the disease but also to act as a portal or a one-stop point of access to the most critical contemporary information about major issues on the disease. Throughout the coming year the program will be reviewed and updated.
Continuing with Innovation
The AVIS series will continue in 2006 to focus on "High Impact Diseases", with a special emphasis on innovative techniques in deploying essential, practical knowledge at the point of need. The focus on "High Impact Diseases" reflects the evolving realisation of the immense significance of major animal diseases, whose consequences include disease, suffering and death of animals; fear, disease or death in humans; prejudice to the safety of food; trade restrictions; adverse effects on tourism, rural livelihoods and rural-based industries as well as detrimental environmental effects. There is also an increasing realization that the vast majority (about 75%) of emerging infectious diseases of humans have an animal origin. Accordingly, many of the High Impact Animal Diseases will be either transboundary or zoonotic in nature.
The 2006 editions of the AVIS programs, therefore, run into 5 main streams:
- Transboundary animal diseases, including FMD, CBPP, African and classical swine fevers
- Zoonotic diseases such as animal tuberculosis, brucellosis, Rift Valley fever and avian influenza
- Food safety and food-borne diseases, through a collaborative link with the AFSIS system (Advanced Food Safety Information System)
- Diagnostics
- Biosecurity and animal health management.
The management of high impact diseases starts from enhancing the capacity for early recognition of clinical signs and detection of the causal agent - whether virus, bacteria, protozoa or prion. The approach to the management of such diseases is increasingly holistic in nature, based on universally adopted risk management principles, and relying on close international collaboration.
A Dashboard
In 2005 we introduced an experimental tool, the FMD "Dashboard", to test the value of bringing together on a single screen the essential information and data that a decision-maker might need to manage an FMD event - whether for training or for a real outbreak. This Dashboard has now been further refined in the light of feedback and experience from testing, and a new release is available for use in 2006. During 2006, management tools such as a calendar, and a call centre support system, will be added in order to track and manage consistent responses to disease events in a multi-centre outbreak.
Collaboration
From its inception in 1992, AVIS has worked with knowledge driven organizations. In this regard we wish to record the continuing guidance and support of the AVIS informal Paternariat comprising the FAO, OIE and the UK Institute for Animal Health. We also continue to enjoy the collaboration of leading scientists in the field of animal health, either as authors of content or peer reviewers.
We continue to extend our network of strategic alliances with centres of excellence in animal health. The new developments in this regard include a Memorandum of Understanding with the University of Pretoria for joint development of multimedia training programs for postgraduate education. Another special relationship has also evolved with the Royal Veterinary College of the University of London.
The AVIS College continues its program of consolidating strategic alliances with centres of excellence in the field of animal health and food safety.
If your establishment is not already in our network we would greatly welcome the opportunity to collaborate with you in our goal of knowledge management in animal health and food safety.
We wish all our partners, collaborating institutions and individuals, all those who have helped us in the AVIS project as well as all our esteemed readers
A Happy and Prosperous 2006
Julian Hilton |
Malika Moussaid |
Apostolos Rantsios |
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William A. Geering |
Mark M. Rweyemamu |
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